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Union Berlin vs Hamburg

Fri 04 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Union Berlin win: 46.2%

Draw: 27.2%

Hamburg win: 26.5%

Predicted: Union Berlin

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.9

More corners: Union Berlin (60.3% home / 39.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Hamburg

Yes

Probability Hamburg wins or draws: 59.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Union Berlin Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 27%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Union Berlin (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Hamburg win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.